2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference

The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference was held at the Bella Center in Copenhagen, Denmark, between 7 December and 18 December. The conference included the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 5th Meeting of the Parties (COP/MOP 5) to the Kyoto Protocol. According to the Bali Road Map, a framework for climate change mitigation beyond 2012 was to be agreed there.

The conference was preceded by the Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions scientific conference, which took place in March 2009 and was also held at the Bella Center. The negotiations began to take a new format when in May 2009 UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon attended the World Business Summit on Climate Change in Copenhagen, organised by the Copenhagen Climate Council (COC), where he requested that COC councillors attend New York's Climate Week at the Summit on Climate Change on 22 September and engage with heads of government on the topic of the climate problem.

Connie Hedegaard was president of the conference until December 16, 2009, handing over the chair to Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen in the final stretch of the conference, during negotiations between heads of state and government. On Friday 18 December, the final day of the conference, international media reported that the climate talks were "in disarray". Media also reported that in lieu of a summit collapse, solely a "weak political statement" was anticipated at the conclusion of the conference.

The Copenhagen Accord was drafted by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa on December 18, and judged a "meaningful agreement" by the United States government. It was "recognised", but not "agreed upon", in a debate of all the participating countries the next day, and it was not passed unanimously. The document recognised that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the present and that actions should be taken to keep any temperature increases to below 2°C. The document is not legally binding and does not contain any legally binding commitments for reducing CO2 emissions. Leaders of industrialised countries, including Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, were pleased with this agreement but many leaders of other countries and non-governmental organisations were opposed to it.


Listing of proposed actions

During the conference some countries stated what actions they were proposing to take if a binding agreement was achieved. In the end, no such agreement was reached and the actions will instead be debated in 2010. Listing by country or political union. Sections in alphabetic order, table according to higher objectives.

Australia

Australia To cut carbon dioxide emissions by 25% below 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal to stabilise levels of CO2e to 450 ppm or lower.

To cut carbon dioxide emissions by 15% below 2000 levels by 2020 if there is an agreement where major developing economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to Australia.

To cut carbon dioxide emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020 unconditionally.

It is clearly stated in proceedings from the Australian Senate and policy statements from the government that the Australian emission reductions include land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) with the form of inclusion remaining undecided and whilst acknowledging that they are subject to the forming of accounting guidelines from this Copenhagen conference. In contention is the Australian Government's preference for the removal of non-human induced LULUCF emissions – and perhaps their abatement – from the account, such as from lightning induced bushfires and the subsequent natural carbon sequestering regrowth.

Using Kyoto accounting guidelines, these proposals are equivalent to an emissions cut of 24%, 14%, and 4% below 1990 levels by 2020 respectively. Raw use of UNFCCC CO2e data including LULUCF as currently defined by the UNFCCC for the years 2000 (404.392 Tg CO2e) and 1990 (453.794 Tg CO2e) leads to apparent emissions cuts of 33% (303.294 Tg CO2e), 25% (343.733 Tg CO2e) and 15% (384.172 Tg CO2e) respectively.

Brazil

Brazil To cut emissions by 38–42% below projected 2020 levels by that same year.

This is equivalent to a change to emissions to between 5% above and 1.8% below 1990 levels by 2020.

Canada

Canada To cut carbon emissions by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020. This is equivalent to 3% below 1990 levels by 2020.

The three most populous provinces disagree with the federal government goal and announced more ambitious targets on their jurisdictions. Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia announced respectively 20%, 15% and 14% reduction target below their 1990 levels while Alberta is expecting a 58% increase in emissions.

China

People's Republic of China To cut emissions intensity by 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2020.

European Union

Europe To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 if an international agreement is reached committing other developed countries and the more advanced developing nations to comparable emission reductions.

To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 unconditionally.

India

India To cut emissions intensity by 20–25% below 2005 levels by 2020.

Japan

Japan To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2020.

New Zealand

New Zealand To reduce emissions between 10% to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a global agreement is secured that limits carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) to 450 ppm and temperature increases to 2°C, effective rules on forestry, and New Zealand having access to international carbon markets.

Russia

Russia To reduce emissions between 20% to 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a global agreement is reached committing other countries to comparable emission reductions.

Singapore

Singapore To reduce emissions by 16% by 2020, based on business-as-usual levels.

South Africa

South Africa To cut emissions by 34% below current levels by 2020. This is equivalent to an absolute emissions cut of 18% below 1990 levels by 2020.

United States of America

United States To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, 42% by 2030 and 83% by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.3% below 1990 levels by 2020, 31% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.

Effects of global warming on India

Lakshadweep, comprising tiny low-lying islands, are at risk of being inundated by sea level rises associated with global warming.

The effects of global warming on the Indian subcontinent vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue.

Greenhouse gases in India

Elevated carbon dioxide emissions contributed to the greenhouse effect, causing warmer weather that lasted long after the atmospheric shroud of dust and aerosols had cleared. Further climatic changes 20 million years ago, long after India had crashed into the Laurasian landmass, were severe enough to cause the extinction of many endemic Indian forms. The formation of the Himalayas resulted in blockage of frigid Central Asian air, preventing it from reaching India; this made its climate significantly warmer and more tropical in character than it would otherwise have been.

Effects of global warming on India and Bangladesh

Several effects of global warming, including steady sea level rise, increased cyclonic activity, and changes in ambient temperature and precipitation patterns, have affected or are projected to affect India. Ongoing sea level rises have submerged several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans, displacing thousands of people. Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau, which are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat.

Environmental

Increased landslides and flooding are projected to have an impact upon states such as Assam. Ecological disasters, such as a 1998 coral bleaching event that killed off more than 70% of corals in the reef ecosystems off Lakshadweep and the Andamans, and was brought on by elevated ocean temperatures tied to global warming, are also projected to become increasingly common.

The first among the countries to be affected by severe climate change is Bangladesh. Its sea level, temperature and evaporation are increasing, and the changes in precipitation and cross boundary river flows are already beginning to cause drainage congestion. There is a reduction in fresh water availability, disturbance of morphologic processes and a higher intensity of flooding and other such disasters. In comparison to the United States, Bangladesh only contributes 0.1% of the world’s emissions yet it has 2.4% of the world’s population. In contrast the the United States makes up about 5 percent of the world's population, yet they produce approximately 25 percent of the pollution that causes global warming.

Economic

The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change come to fruition, climate-related factors could cause India's GDP to decline by up to 9%; contributing to this would be shifting growing seasons for major crops such as rice, production of which could fall by 40%. Around seven million people are projected to be displaced due to, among other factors, submersion of parts of Mumbai and Chennai, if global temperatures were to rise by a mere 2 °C (3.6 °F).

Villagers in India's North Easter state of Meghalaya are also concerned that rising sea levels will submerge neighbouring low-lying Bangladesh, resulting in an influx of refugees into Meghalaya—which has few resources to handle such a situation.

If severe climate changes occur, Bangladesh will lose land along the coast line. This will be highly damaging to Bangalies especially because nearly two-thirds of Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector, with rice as the single-most-important product. The economy has grown 5-6% over the past few years despite inefficient state-owned enterprises, delays in exploiting natural gas resources insufficient power supplies, and slow implementation of economic reforms. However, Bangladesh remains a poor, overpopulated, and inefficiently-governed nation. If no further steps are taken to improve the current conditions global warming will effect the economy severely worsening the present issues further.

Past climate change
Thick haze and smoke along the Ganges River in northern India.

However, such shifts are not new: for example, earlier in the current Holocene epoch (4,800–6,300 years ago), parts of what is now the Thar Desert were wet enough to support perennial lakes; researchers have proposed that this was due to much higher winter precipitation, which coincided with stronger monsoons. Similarly, Kashmir, which once had a warm subtropical climate, shifted to a substantially colder temperate climate 2.6–3.7 mya; it was then repeatedly subjected to extended cold spells starting 600,000 years ago.

Pollution

Thick haze and smoke, originating from burning biomass in northwestern India and air pollution from large industrial cities in northern India, often concentrate inside the Ganges Basin. Prevailing westerlies carry aerosols along the southern margins of the steep-faced Tibetan Plateau to eastern India and the Bay of Bengal. Dust and black carbon, which are blown towards higher altitudes by winds at the southern faces of the Himalayas, can absorb shortwave radiation and heat the air over the Tibetan Plateau. The net atmospheric heating due to aerosol absorption causes the air to warm and convect upwards, increasing the concentration of moisture in the mid-troposphere and providing positive feedback that stimulates further heating of aerosols.

Awareness

Tribal people in India's remote northeast plan to honour former U.S. Vice President Al Gore with an award for promoting awareness on climate change that they say will have a devastating impact on their homeland.

Meghalaya -- meaning 'Abode of the Clouds' in Hindi -- is home to the towns of Cherrapunji and Mawsynram, which are credited with being the wettest places in the world due to their high rainfall.

But scientists state that global climate change is causing these areas to experience an increasingly sparse and erratic rainfall pattern and a lengthened dry season, affecting the livelihoods of thousands of villagers who cultivate paddy and maize. Some areas are also facing water shortages.

El Niño and La Niña

El Niño is a weather event involving the eastward migration of a mass of warm water normally found in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Periodically (usually every three to seven years), the easterly trade winds in the Pacific weaken and allow the pool of warm water to drift from Australia to the western coast of South America, often triggering heavy rains there.


This vast pool of warm water is thought to set off a chain reaction that can affect jet stream and weather patterns around the world, especially in the winter months in the northern hemisphere. El Niño is sometimes referred to as ENSO for El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The Southern Oscillation is a seesaw of air pressures on the eastern and western halves of the Pacific.

La Niña is essentially the opposite of El Niño. La Nina is a migrating pool of cooler-than-usual ocean water. The cool water can suppress rain-producing clouds, which leads to dry conditions.

Peruvian fishermen first noticed the effects of a new El Niño at Christmas ime, when storminess off the coast reduced the supply of fish. "El Niño" is Spanish for "the boy child," and is used to refer to the Baby Jesus. The name La Niña ("the girl child") was coined to deliberately represent the opposite of El Niño.

Because even the most dedicated scientists do not thoroughly understand El Niño and La Niña (we do not know, for instance, why the trade winds suddenly die down and allow the warm water pool to move eastward), we can only describe certain tendencies in the weather.

In the past, El Niño has often brought heavy rains to southern California and to a portion of the South from Atlanta to Cape Hatteras; it can bring relatively mild winter temperatures to the northern third of the country. However, these effects are not consistent in every El Niño event on record.

The stronger the La Niña, the more severe the droughts. Tha La Niña in 2009 is creating severe drought in much of the world, causing an agricultural crisis.


El Niño

The data from TOPEX/Poseidon, and in the future Jason-1, helps us study and understand the complex interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere which affect global weather and climate events. One well-known example of this interaction is an El Niño event.

El Niño was named by people who fish off the western coast of central America to refer to the warm current that invades their coastal waters around Christmastime. El Niño events disrupt fisheries and bring severe weather events worldwide.

In a normal year, the trade winds blow westward and push warm surface water near Australia and New Guinea. When warm water builds up in the western Pacific Ocean, nutrient-rich cold water comes up off the west coast of South America and fosters the growth of the fish population.


During an El Niño event, the trade winds weaken and warm, nutrient-poor water occupies the entire tropical Pacific Ocean. Heavy rains that are tied to the warm water move into the central Pacific Ocean and cause drought in Indonesia and Australia. This also alters the path of the atmospheric jet stream over North and South America.

The effects of El Niño disrupt normal winter conditions throughout the Pacific Ocean, and can persist into May or June. Reliable predictions of an El Niño occurrence will lead to better preparation for its widespread impact.

La Niña

Warm El Niños and cold La Niñas follow each other against the backdrop of the ocean seasons. During a La Niña, the trade winds are stronger and cold, nutrient-rich water occupies much of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Most of the precipication occurs in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, so rain is abundant over Indonesia.

Snow War

Extreme weather warning as Britain braces for snowstorms

Blizzards and up to 15cm of snow expected as arctic temperatures make winter coldest for 13 years

Britain is standing by for more icy weather tonight as snowstorms move in from the North Sea where they have been gathering since early this morning.

Arctic temperatures will accompany a front that looks certain to make this winter the coldest for 13 years.

The Met Office said it was classifying tomorrow's expected snowfall as an "extreme weather event". The warning covers the south-east of England, including London.

"This is likely to be the heaviest and most widespread snowfall across England since January 2003," Tom Defty, the head of forecasting operations at MetService, said.

"Parts of south-east England, including London and eastern England, will see anywhere from 10cm [4in] to 15cm [of snow], and perhaps above 20cm over the higher ground."

He said the worst of the snow would arrive in Kent tomorrow morning before spreading north and west during the afternoon.

Up to 10cm of snow is expected to fall in the eastern parts of Lincolnshire and Yorkshire, where the coastline between Bridlington and Skegness will bear the brunt of the first storms.

Blizzard conditions and drifts may affect coastal areas and close scores of roads if current high winds persist.

"Severe disruption to roads and airports is extremely probable during the peak of the Monday afternoon rush hour," Defty said.

"Through Monday night into Tuesday, a slow thaw will set in across eastern areas as milder air turns falling snow back to rain."

He said further outbreaks of snow were expected throughout the week across Wales, northern England and Scotland."

Forecasters predicted that the gathering strength of the cold front would see heavy falls well inland, with 5cm predicted for Leeds and Bradford, in Yorkshire, before the morning rush hour.

Light snow has already fallen intermittently in London and across East Anglia.
Forecasters are predicting average wind speeds of between 25 and 30mph, with much fiercer gusts. Gale force strengths could be reached as the storms move over warmer land and gather pace.

People across the country were warned to wrap up warm and avoid unnecessary journeys.
Stephen Davenport, of the MeteoGroup forecasting group, said: "In places, it will feel several degrees below because of wind chill."

The AA's spokesman Andy Taylor said: "Don't treat your car as an overcoat. If you break down you are suddenly vulnerable to the weather.

"That especially applies if you are on a motorway, where safety advice is to get out of the car and wait behind the barrier. Unless you have extra clothes, you really could be flirting with hypothermia."

The easterly chill follows a relatively mild spell after the three-week freeze in early January during which lows of –13C (8.6F) were reached. The previous coldest winter was in 1995.

Bookies have cut odds on 2009 being the coldest winter on record from 12/1 to 8/1, but a counter-trend is seeing betting that this summer will be one of the hottest ever.


Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/weather/2009/feb/01/snow-arctic-britain-weather-blizzards

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Killer Heat Waves

Severe Drought
Droughts occur throughout North America and in any year, at least one region is experiencing drought conditions. We usually don't think of droughts in the same way as other natural disasters, such as floods or hurricanes. For example, no one knows for sure how severe a drought will be - until the rains return. But droughts can be more costly than other natural disasters.

Before a drought happens
In general, adopt or change to practices, techniques, and equipment that use less on water or work well regardless of drought conditions, before you need them. Not only will this make drought conditions easier to bear, it will reduce demand on existing supplies in general.

Heat Wave: A Major Summer Killer
Heat is the number one weather-related killer. On average, more than 1,500 people in the U.S. die each year from excessive heat. This number is greater than the 30-year mean annual number of deaths due to tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and lightning combined. In the 40-year period from 1936 through 1975, nearly 20,000 people were killed in the United States by the effects of heat and solar radiation.

In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. In the heat wave of 1995 more than 700 deaths in the Chicago, Illinois area were attributed to this event. And in August 2003, a record heat wave in Europe claimed an estimated 50,000 lives.

North American summers are hot; most summers see heat waves in one section or another of the United States. East of the Rockies, they tend to combine both high temperature and high humidity although some of the worst have been catastrophically dry. Additional detail on how heat impacts the human body is provided under "The Hazards of Excessive Heat" heading.

The Hazards of Excessive Heat

How Heat Affects the Body Human
Human bodies dissipate heat by varying the rate and depth of blood circulation, by losing water through the skin and sweat glands, and-as the last extremity is reached-by panting, when blood is heated above 98.6 degrees. The heart begins to pump more blood, blood vessels dilate to accommodate the increased flow, and the bundles of tiny capillaries threading through the upper layers of skin are put into operation.

The body's blood is circulated closer to the skin's surface, and excess heat drains off into the cooler atmosphere. At the same time, water diffuses through the skin as perspiration. The skin handles about 90 percent of the body's heat dissipating function.

Sweating, by itself, does nothing to cool the body, unless the water is removed by evaporation, and high relative humidity retards evaporation. The evaporation process itself works this way: the heat energy required to evaporate the sweat is extracted from the body, thereby cooling it. Under conditions of high temperature (above 90 degrees) and high relative humidity, the body is doing everything it can to maintain 98.6 degrees inside. The heart is pumping a torrent of blood through dilated circulatory vessels; the sweat glands are pouring liquid-including essential dissolved chemicals, like sodium and chloride onto the surface of the skin.

Too Much Heat

Heat disorders generally have to do with a reduction or collapse of the body's ability to shed heat by circulatory changes and sweating, or a chemical (salt) imbalance caused by too much sweating. When heat gain exceeds the level the body can remove, or when the body cannot compensate for fluids and salt lost through perspiration, the temperature of the body's inner core begins to rise and heat-related illness may develop.

Ranging in severity, heat disorders share one common feature: the individual has overexposed or over exercised for his age and physical condition in the existing thermal environment.

Sunburn, with its ultraviolet radiation burns, can significantly retard the skin's ability to shed excess heat. Studies indicate that, other things being equal, the severity of heat disorders tend to increase with age-heat cramps in a 17-year-old may be heat exhaustion in someone 40, and heat stroke in a person over 60.
Acclimatization has to do with adjusting sweat-salt concentrations, among other things. The idea is to lose enough water to regulate body temperature, with the least possible chemical disturbance.

Cities Pose Special Hazards

The stagnant atmospheric conditions of the heat wave trap pollutants in urban areas and add the stresses of severe pollution to the already dangerous stresses of hot weather, creating a health problem of undiscovered dimensions. A map of heat-related deaths in St. Louis during 1966, for example, shows a heavier concentration in the crowded alleys and towers of the inner city, where air quality would also be poor during a heat wave.

The high inner-city death rates also can be read as poor access to air-conditioned rooms. While air conditioning may be a luxury in normal times, it can be a lifesaver during heat wave conditions.

The cost of cool air moves steadily higher, adding what appears to be a cruel economic side to heat wave fatalities. Indications from the 1978 Texas heat wave suggest that some elderly people on fixed incomes, many of them in buildings that could not be ventilated without air conditioning, found the cost too high, turned off their units, and ultimately succumbed to the stresses of heat
Children, Adults, and Pets Enclosed in Parked Vehicles Are at Great Risk
Each year children die from hyperthermia as a result of being left enclosed in parked vehicles. This can occur even on a mild day. Studies have shown that the temperature inside a parked vehicle can rise rapidly to a dangerous level for children, adults, and pets. Leaving the windows slightly open does not significantly decrease the heating rate. The effects can be more severe on children because their bodies warm at a faster rate than adults.

Excessive Heat Cautions and Safety Tips

Preventing Heat-Related Illness

Elderly persons, small children, chronic invalids, those on certain medications or drugs (especially tranquilizers and anticholinergics), and persons with weight and alcohol problems are particularly susceptible to heat reactions, especially during heat waves in areas where a moderate climate usually prevails.

Heat Wave Safety Tips

Slow down. Strenuous activities should be reduced, eliminated, or rescheduled to the coolest time of the day. Individuals at risk should stay in the coolest available place, not necessarily indoors.

Dress for summer. Lightweight light-colored clothing reflects heat and sunlight, and helps your body maintain normal temperatures.

Put less fuel on your inner fires. Foods (like proteins) that increase metabolic heat production also increase water loss.

Drink plenty of water or other non-alcohol fluids. Your body needs water to keep cool. Drink plenty of fluids even if you don't feel thirsty. Persons who (1) have epilepsy or heart, kidney, or liver disease, (2) are on fluid restrictive diets or (3) have a problem with fluid retention should consult a physician before increasing their consumption of fluids.

Do not drink alcoholic beverages.

Do not take salt tablets unless specified by a physician.

Spend more time in air-conditioned places. Air conditioning in homes and other buildings markedly reduces danger from the heat. If you cannot afford an air conditioner, spending some time each day (during hot weather) in an air conditioned environment affords some protection.

Don't get too much sun. Sunburn makes the job of heat dissipation that much more difficult

Never leave persons, especially children, and pets in a closed, parked vehicle
Know These Heat Disorder Symptoms

SUNBURN: Redness and pain. In severe cases swelling of skin, blisters, fever, headaches. First Aid: Ointments for mild cases if blisters appear and do not break. If breaking occurs, apply dry sterile dressing. Serious, extensive cases should be seen by physician.

HEAT CRAMPS: Painful spasms usually in muscles of legs and abdomen possible. Heavy sweating. First Aid: Firm pressure on cramping muscles, or gentle massage to relieve spasm. Give sips of water. If nausea occurs, discontinue use.

HEAT EXHAUSTION: Heavy sweating, weakness, skin cold, pale and clammy. Pulse thready. Normal temperature possible. Fainting and vomiting. First Aid: Get victim out of sun. Lay down and loosen clothing. Apply cool, wet cloths. Fan or move victim to air conditioned room. Sips of water. If nausea occurs, discontinue use. If vomiting continues, seek immediate medical attention.

HEAT STROKE (or sunstroke): High body temperature (106° F or higher). Hot dry skin. Rapid and strong pulse. Possible unconsciousness. First Aid: HEAT STROKE IS A SEVERE MEDICAL EMERGENCY. SUMMON EMERGENCY MEDICAL ASSISTANCE OR GET THE VICTIM TO A HOSPITAL IMMEDIATELY. DELAY CAN BE FATAL. Move the victim to a cooler environment Reduce body temperature with cold bath or sponging. Use extreme caution. Remove clothing, use fans and air conditioners. If temperature rises again, repeat process. Do not give fluids. Persons on salt restrictive diets should consult a physician before increasing their salt intake.

Excess Rain in Monsoon

Most scientists agree that global warming presents the greatest threat to the environment.

There is little doubt that the Earth is heating up. In the last century the average temperature has climbed about 0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) around the world.

From the melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, to the loss of coral reefs as oceans become warmer, the effects of global warming are often clear.

However, the biggest danger, many experts warn, is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically. Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). But that's nothing compared to what would happen if, for example, Greenland's massive ice sheet were to melt.

"The consequences would be catastrophic," said Jonathan Overpeck, director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson. "Even with a small sea level rise, we're going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years."

Overpeck and his colleagues have used computer models to create a series of maps that show how susceptible coastal cities and island countries are to the sea rising at different levels. The maps show that a 1-meter (3-foot) rise would swamp cities all along the U.S. eastern seaboard. A 6-meter (20-foot) sea level rise would submerge a large part of Florida.

Uncertainties

Just as the evidence is irrefutable that temperatures have risen in the last century, it's also well established that carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has increased about 30 percent, enhancing the atmosphere's ability to trap heat.
The exact link, if any, between the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and the higher temperatures is still under debate.

Most scientists believe that humans, by burning fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum, are largely to blame for the increase in carbon dioxide. But some scientists also point to natural causes, such as volcanic activity.
"Many uncertainties surround global warming," said Ronald Stouffer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. "How much of it would still occur if humans were not modifying the climate in any way?"

The current rate of warning is unprecedented, however. It is apparently the fastest warming rate in millions of years, suggesting it probably is not a natural occurrence. And most scientists believe the rise in temperatures will in fact accelerate. The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2001 that the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100.

INDONESIA Tsunami After and Before photos collection

Very Tragetic images of Tsunami in Indonesia
































Earthquake characteristics

Epicentre of the earthquake, just north of Simeulue IslandThe earthquake was initially reported as moment magnitude 9.0. In February 2005 scientists revised the estimate of the magnitude to 9.3. Although the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has accepted these new numbers, the United States Geological Survey has so far not changed its estimate of 9.1. The most recent studies in 2006 have obtained a magnitude of Mw 9.1 to 9.3. Dr. Hiroo Kanamori of the California Institute of Technology believes that Mw = 9.2 is a good representative value for the size of this great earthquake.

The hypocentre of the main earthquake was at 3°18′58″N 95°51′14″E / 3.316°N 95.854°E / 3.316; 95.854, approximately 160 km (100 mi), in the Indian Ocean just north of Simeulue island, off the western coast of northern Sumatra, at a depth of 30 km (19 mi) below mean sea level (initially reported as 10 km). The northern section of the Sunda megathrust, which at the time was assumed to be dormant ruptured, the rupture having a length of 1600 km. The size of the rupture caused plate shifting of up to 20 m, causing the earthquake (followed by the tsunami) to be felt simultaneously as far away as Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore and the Maldives. Splay faults or secondary "pop up faults" caused long narrow parts of the sea floor to pop up in seconds elevating the height and increased the speed of waves to cause the complete destruction of the nearby Indonesian town of Lhoknga.

Indonesia lies between the Pacific Ring of Fire along the north-eastern islands adjacent to and including New Guinea and the Alpide belt along the south and west from Sumatra, Java, Bali, Flores, and Timor.

Great earthquakes such as the Sumatra-Andaman event, which are invariably associated with megathrust events in subduction zones, have seismic moments that can account for a significant fraction of the global earthquake moment across century-scale time periods. The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was the largest earthquake since 1964, and the second largest since the Kamchatka earthquake of October 16, 1737.


Graphic of largest earthquakes 1906-2005Of all the seismic moment released by earthquakes in the 100 years from 1906 through 2005, roughly one-eighth was due to the Sumatra-Andaman event. This quake, together with the Good Friday Earthquake (Alaska, 1964) and the Great Chilean Earthquake (1960), account for almost half of the total moment. The much smaller but still catastrophic 1906 San Francisco earthquake is included in the diagram at right for perspective. Mw denotes the magnitude of an earthquake on the moment magnitude scale.

Since 1900 the only earthquakes recorded with a greater magnitude were the 1960 Great Chilean Earthquake (magnitude 9.5) and the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake in Prince William Sound (9.2). The only other recorded earthquake of magnitude 9.0 or greater was off Kamchatka, Russia, on November 4, 1952 (magnitude 9.0). Each of these megathrust earthquakes also spawned tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean, but the death toll from these was significantly lower. The worst of these caused only a few thousand deaths, primarily because of the lower population density along the coasts near affected areas and the much greater distances to more populated coasts.

Other very large megathrust earthquakes occurred in 1868 (Peru, Nazca Plate and South American Plate); 1827 (Colombia, Nazca Plate and South American Plate); 1812 (Venezuela, Caribbean Plate and South American Plate) and 1700 (Cascadia Earthquake, western U.S. and Canada, Juan de Fuca Plate and North American Plate). These are all believed to have been of greater than magnitude 9, but no accurate measurements were available at the time.


Energy released by the earthquake

The energy released on the Earth's surface only, MEwhich is the seismic potential for damage, by the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami was estimated at 1.1×1017 joules or 26.3 megatons of TNT. This energy is equivalent to over 1502 times that of the Hiroshima atomic bomb, but less than that of Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated. However, this is but a tiny fraction of the total work done MW (and thus energy) by this quake, 4.0×1029 ergs (40 ZJ), the vast majority underground. This equates to 4.0×1022 J, over 363 thousand times more than its ME. This is a truly enormous figure, equivalent to 9,560 gigatons of TNT equivalent (550 million times that of Hiroshima), or about 370 years of energy use in the United States at 2005 levels of 1.08×1020 J.

The only recorded earthquakes with a larger MW were the 1960 Chilean and 1964 Alaskan quakes, with 2.5×1030 ergs (250 ZJ) and 7.5×1029 ergs (75 ZJ) respectively. Please see USGS:Measuring the size of earthquakes.

The earthquake generated seismic oscillation of the Earth's surface of up to 20–30 cm (8–12 in), equivalent to the effect of the tidal forces caused by the Sun and Moon. The shock waves of the earthquake were felt across the planet; as far away as the U.S. state of Oklahoma, where vertical movements of 3 mm (0.12 in) were recorded.

Because of its enormous energy release and shallow rupture depth, the earthquake generated remarkable seismic ground motions around the globe, particularly due to huge Rayleigh (surface) elastic waves that exceeded 1 cm in vertical amplitude everywhere on Earth. The record section plot below displays vertical displacements of the Earth's surface recorded by seismometers from the IRIS/USGS Global Seismographic Network plotted with respect to time (since the earthquake initiation) on the horizontal axis, and vertical displacements of the Earth on the vertical axis (note the 1 cm scale bar at the bottom for scale). The seismograms are arranged vertically by distance from the epicenter in degrees. The earliest, lower amplitude, signal is that of the compressional (P) wave, which takes about 22 minutes to reach the other side of the planet (the antipode; in this case near Ecuador). The largest amplitude signals are seismic surface waves that reach the antipode after about 100 minutes. The surface waves can be clearly seen to reinforce near the antipode (with the closest seismic stations in Ecuador), and to subsequently encircle the planet to return to the epicentral region after about 200 minutes. A major aftershock (magnitude 7.1) can be seen at the closest stations starting just after the 200 minute mark. This aftershock would be considered a major earthquake under ordinary circumstances, but is dwarfed by the mainshock.


Vertical-component ground motions recorded by the IRIS/USGS Global Seismographic NetworkThe shift of mass and the massive release of energy very slightly altered the Earth's rotation. The exact amount is not yet known, but theoretical models suggest the earthquake shortened the length of a day by 2.68 microseconds, due to a decrease in the oblateness of the Earth. It also caused the Earth to minutely "wobble" on its axis by up to 2.5 cm (1 in) in the direction of 145° east longitude, or perhaps by up to 5 or 6 cm (2.0 to 2.4 in). However, because of tidal effects of the Moon, the length of a day increases at an average of 15 µs per year, so any rotational change due to the earthquake will be lost quickly. Similarly, the natural Chandler wobble of the Earth, which in some cases can be up to 15 m (50 ft), will eventually offset the minor wobble produced by the earthquake.

More spectacularly, there was 10 m (33 ft) movement laterally and 4–5 m (13–16 ft) vertically along the fault line. Early speculation was that some of the smaller islands south-west of Sumatra, which is on the Burma Plate (the southern regions are on the Sunda Plate), might have moved south-west by up to 36 m (118 ft), but more accurate data released more than a month after the earthquake found the movement to be about 20 cm (7.9 in). Since movement was vertical as well as lateral, some coastal areas may have been moved to below sea level. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands appear to have shifted south-west by around 1.25 m (4.1 ft) and to have sunk by 1 m (3.28 ft).

In February 2005, the Royal Navy vessel HMS Scott surveyed the seabed around the earthquake zone, which varies in depth between 1,000 m and 5,000 m (3,300 ft and 16,500 ft). The survey, conducted using a high-resolution, multi-beam sonar system, revealed that the earthquake had made a huge impact on the topography of the seabed. 1,500-meter (5,000 ft) high thrust ridges created by previous geologic activity along the fault had collapsed, generating landslides several kilometers wide. One such landslide consisted of a single block of rock some 100 m high and 2 km long (300 ft by 1.25 mi). The momentum of the water displaced by tectonic uplift had also dragged massive slabs of rock, each weighing millions of tons, as far as 10 km (7 mi) across the seabed. An oceanic trench several kilometres wide was exposed in the earthquake zone.

The TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason satellites happened to pass over the tsunami as it was crossing the ocean. These satellites carry radars that measure precisely the height of the water surface; anomalies of the order of 50 cm (20 in) were measured. Measurements from these satellites may prove invaluable for the understanding of the earthquake and tsunami. Unlike data from tide gauges installed on shores, measurements obtained in the middle of the ocean can be used for computing the parameters of the source earthquake without having to compensate for the complex ways in which close proximity to the coast changes the size and shape of a wave.


Tsunami characteristics

Animation of the tsunami caused by the earthquake showing how the tsunami radiated from the entire length of the 1,600 km (994 mi) rupture.The sudden vertical rise of the seabed by several metres during the earthquake displaced massive volumes of water, resulting in a tsunami that struck the coasts of the Indian Ocean. A tsunami which causes damage far away from its source is sometimes called a teletsunami and is much more likely to be produced by vertical motion of the seabed than by horizontal motion.

The tsunami, like all others, behaved very differently in deep water than in shallow water. In deep ocean water, tsunami waves form only a small hump, barely noticeable and harmless, which generally travels at a very high speed of 500 to 1,000 km/h (310 to 620 mph); in shallow water near coastlines, a tsunami slows down to only tens of kilometres an hour but in doing so forms large destructive waves. Scientists investigating the damage in Aceh found evidence that the wave reached a height of 24 m when coming ashore along large stretches of the coastline, rising to 30 m (100 ft) in some areas when travelling inland.

Radar satellites recorded the heights of tsunami waves in deep water: at two hours after the earthquake, the maximum height was 60 cm (2 ft). These are the first such observations ever made. Unfortunately these observations could not be used to provide a warning, since the satellites were not built for that purpose and the data took hours to analyze.

According to Tad Murty, vice-president of the Tsunami Society, the total energy of the tsunami waves was equivalent to about five megatons of TNT (20 petajoules). This is more than twice the total explosive energy used during all of World War II (including the two atomic bombs), but still a couple of orders of magnitude less than the energy released in the earthquake itself. In many places the waves reached as far as 2 km (1.24 mi) inland.

Because the 1,600 km (994 mi) fault affected by the earthquake was in a nearly north-south orientation, the greatest strength of the tsunami waves was in an east-west direction. Bangladesh, which lies at the northern end of the Bay of Bengal, had very few casualties despite being a low-lying country relatively near the epicenter. It also benefited from the fact that the earthquake proceeded more slowly in the northern rupture zone, greatly reducing the energy of the water displacements in that region.

Coasts that have a landmass between them and the tsunami's location of origin are usually safe; however, tsunami waves can sometimes diffract around such landmasses. Thus, the Indian state of Kerala was hit by the tsunami despite being on the western coast of India, and the western coast of Sri Lanka also suffered substantial impacts. Also distance alone was no guarantee of safety; Somalia was hit harder than Bangladesh despite being much farther away.

Because of the distances involved, the tsunami took anywhere from fifteen minutes to seven hours (for Somalia) to reach the various coastlines. The northern regions of the Indonesian island of Sumatra were hit very quickly, while Sri Lanka and the east coast of India were hit roughly 90 minutes to two hours later. Thailand was also struck about two hours later despite being closer to the epicentre, because the tsunami travelled more slowly in the shallow Andaman Sea off its western coast.

The tsunami was noticed as far as Struisbaai in South Africa, some 8,500 km (5,300 mi) away, where a 1.5 m (5 ft) high tide surged on shore about 16 hours after the earthquake. It took a relatively long time to reach this spot at the southernmost point of Africa, probably because of the broad continental shelf off South Africa and because the tsunami would have followed the South African coast from east to west. The tsunami also reached Antarctica, where tidal gauges at Japan's Showa Base recorded oscillations of up to a metre, with disturbances lasting a couple of days.

Some of the tsunami's energy escaped into the Pacific Ocean, where it produced small but measurable tsunamis along the western coasts of North and South America, typically around 20 to 40 cm (7.9 to 15.7 in). At Manzanillo, Mexico, a 2.6 m (8.5 ft) crest-to-trough tsunami was measured. As well, the tsunami was large enough to be detected in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. This puzzled many scientists, as the tsunamis measured in some parts of South America were larger than those measured in some parts of the Indian Ocean. It has been theorized that the tsunamis were focused and directed at long ranges by the mid-ocean ridges which run along the margins of the continental plates.

Climate Change

Climate change factors

Climate change is the result of a great many factors including the dynamic processes of the Earth itself, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently by human activities. External factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings and include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, and the level of greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that will either amplify or diminish the initial forcing.

Most forms of internal variability in the climate system can be recognized as a form of hysteresis, where the current state of climate does not immediately reflect the inputs. Because the Earth's climate system is so large, it moves slowly and has time-lags in its reaction to inputs. For example, a year of dry conditions may do no more than to cause lakes to shrink slightly or plains to dry marginally. In the following year however, these conditions may result in less rainfall, possibly leading to a drier year the next. When a critical point is reached after "x" number of years, the entire system may be altered inexorably. In this case, resulting in no rainfall at all. It is this hysteresis that has been mooted to be the possible progenitor of rapid and irreversible climate change.

Plate tectonics

On the longest time scales, plate tectonics will reposition continents, shape oceans, build and tear down mountains and generally serve to define the stage upon which climate exists. During the Carboniferous period, plate tectonics may have triggered the large-scale storage of Carbon and increased glaciation. More recently, plate motions have been implicated in the intensification of the present ice age when, approximately 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided to form the Isthmus of Panama and shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.


Ocean variability

On a timescale often measured in decades or more, climate changes can also result from the interaction between the atmosphere and the oceans. Many climate fluctuations, including the El Niño Southern oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, owe their existence at least in part to the different ways that heat may be stored in the oceans and also to the way it moves between various 'reservoirs'. On longer time scales (with a complete cycle often taking up to a thousand years to complete), ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation also play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the oceans.

Glacial geology

Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 years

Glaciers are recognized as being among the most sensitive indicators of climate change, advancing during climate cooling (for example, during the period known as the Little Ice Age) and retreating during climate warming on moderate time scales. Glaciers grow and shrink, both contributing to natural variability and amplifying externally forced changes. A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s. Initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps, this compilation has resulted in a detailed inventory of more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2 and, in preliminary estimates, for the recording of the remaining ice cover estimated to be around 445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide have been shown to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again increasing rates of ice loss from the mid 1980s to present. Mass balance data indicate 17 consecutive years of negative glacier mass balance.
Percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps in the last 80 years

The most significant climate processes of the last several million years are the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present age. The present interglaciation (often termed the Holocene) has lasted about 10,000 years. Shaped by orbital variations, earth-based responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the forcing effect of orbital changes.

Advancing glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material - including organic matter that may be accurately dated - recording the periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit may also be precisely ascertained. Glaciers are considered one of the most sensitive climate indicators by the IPCC, and their recent observed variations are considered a prominent indicator of impending climate change. See also Retreat of glaciers since 1850.

Environment Pollution

Pollution became a popular issue after WW2, when the aftermath of atomic warfare and testing made evident the perils of radioactive fallout. Then a conventional catastrophic event The Great Smog of 1952 in London killed at least 8000 people. This massive event prompted some of the first major modern environmental legislation, The Clean Air Act of 1956.

Pollution began to draw major public attention in the United States between the mid-1950s and early 1970s, when Congress passed the Noise Control Act, the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act and the National Environmental Policy Act.

Bad bouts of local pollution helped increase consciousness. PCB dumping in the Hudson River resulted in a ban by the EPA on consumption of its fish in 1974. Long-term dioxin contamination at Love Canal starting in 1947 became a national news story in 1978 and led to the Superfund legislation of 1980. Legal proceedings in the 1990s helped bring to light Chromium-6 releases in California--the champions of whose victims became famous. The pollution of industrial land gave rise to the name brownfield, a term now common in city planning. DDT was banned in most of the developed world after the publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring.

The development of nuclear science introduced radioactive contamination, which can remain lethally radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years. Lake Karachay, named by the Worldwatch Institute as the "most polluted spot" on earth, served as a disposal site for the Soviet Union thoroughout the 1950s and 1960s. Second place may go to the to the area of Chelyabinsk U.S.S.R. (see reference below) as the "Most polluted place on the planet".

Nuclear weapons continued to be tested in the Cold War, sometimes near inhabited areas, especially in the earlier stages of their development. The toll on the worst-affected populations and the growth since then in understanding about the critical threat to human health posed by radioactivity has also been a prohibitive complication associated with nuclear power. Though extreme care is practiced in that industry, the potential for disaster suggested by incidents such as those at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl pose a lingering specter of public mistrust. One legacy of nuclear testing before most forms were banned has been significantly raised levels of background radiation.

International catastrophes such as the wreck of the Amoco Cadiz oil tanker off the coast of Brittany in 1978 and the Bhopal disaster in 1984 have demonstrated the universality of such events and the scale on which efforts to address them needed to engage. The borderless nature of atmosphere and oceans inevitably resulted in the implication of pollution on a planetary level with the issue of global warming. Most recently the term persistent organic pollutant (POP) has come to describe a group of chemicals such as PBDEs and PFCs among others. Though their effects remain somewhat less well understood owing to a lack of experimental data, they have been detected in various ecological habitats far removed from industrial activity such as the Arctic, demonstrating diffusion and bioaccumulation after only a relatively brief period of widespread use.

Growing evidence of local and global pollution and an increasingly informed public over time have given rise to environmentalism and the environmental movement, which generally seek to limit human impact on the environment.